Dire Diabetes Predictions Challenge Medicare Debates in Congress

By Sheilah Downey

The number of aging baby boomers diagnosed with diabetes will nearly double in the next 25 years, says a new study, and spending on treatment may triple over the same period.

Today there are an estimated 23.7 million people living with diabetes with that number expected to balloon to 44.1 million in 2034, according to the study from the University of Chicago. Spending on diabetes will rise from $113 billion to $336 billion -- even if there is no increase in obesity rates, one of the biggest risk factors for the disorder.

Researchers emphasize that much of the cost will be driven by the aging baby boomer population. "Baby boomers," the 77 million  Americans born between 1946 and 1957, are rapidly approaching retirement age and also the age of onset of diabetes. As they become Medicare eligible, the number of those diagnosed with diabetes could rise from 8.2 million to 14.6 million, researchers predict.

With warnings that federal spending on diabetes treatment will skyrocket from $45 billion to $171 billion, researchers say now is the time to stress dietary and lifestyle changes.

"If we don't change our diet and exercise habits or find new, more effective and less expensive ways to prevent and treat diabetes, we will find ourselves in a lot of trouble as a population," said lead author Dr. Elbert Huang, assistant professor of medicine in a University of Chicago news release.

"Without significant changes in public or private strategies," authors wrote, "this population and cost growth are expected to add a significant strain to an overburdened health care system."

The current study is far more ominous and "troubling," said researchers, than previous studies predicting the diabetes course. A 1991 study predicted the numbers of diabetics would double in 2030, a number which is half of the cases already diagnosed this year.

And although obesity levels have risen steadily for many years, the authors predict that levels with top out in the next decade and then decline.

"Despite recent trends in obesity rates," Dr. Huang said, "we anticipate that the population will reach an equilibrium in obesity levels, since we cannot all become obese."

The University of Chicago study will be published in the December issue of Diabetes Care.