Massive Numbers of Flu Cases Make Specific Diagnoses Impossible

By Rachel Howell Stockton

Margaret C. went to her physician with chills, fever, aches and pains last week.  Her doctor informed her that she had the swine flu.  Margaret says, “I know that she can’t possibly be certain of that; she didn’t give me any kind of test or anything, she just told me that, based on my symptoms.”

Catherine B. went to her doctor with similar symptoms; her doctor’s diagnosis was that she had “some type of flu,” but he wasn’t sure which one.  He gave her a prescription for Tamiflu and she is now recovering.

Neither physician tested their patients, so which flu Margaret and Catherine had is virtually unknown.

And, that’s not uncommon.  According to the Associated Press, doctors stopped counting actual swine flu cases back in July.   There’s really no actual tally that is completely accurate.  In fact, some patients could actually have a mutation of the viruses, and no one would know, unless of course, they died from it.

According to the CDC, some states are still reporting only lab confirmed cases of the swine flu, while others are sending the agency hospitalization numbers of patients who could have the swine or seasonal flu, or some other respiratory ailment.

Other nations have stopped counting, also.  The numbers have become so massive that keeping up with a definitive number is virtually impossible, based on current resources and record keeping systems.

Specifically, the CDC gets their numbers from state and local health agencies.  The CDC, per their website, has given states the option of providing laboratory confirmed hospitalizations and deaths or “syndromic cases.”  This latter method is not as specific, and allows states to give an accounting for those who are presumed to have influenza or pneumonia.

Early on, the agency says, the surveillance system in place was more specific; only cases of lab verified H1N1 cases were reported.  However, because of the massive numbers associated with the pandemic, the system was modified to match the one that has been used in years prior to track seasonal flu.

While most pundits agree that at this point, this approach is “adequate”, in the long run, it will be impossible to trace any type of trend that isolates swine flu cases only.  Out of necessity, the focus must remain on providing adequate care for ailing patients, regardless of the source of their illness.