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Harvard Takes it Back and Says Swine Flu was Oversold

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Posted by: Dr. Mercola
January 02 2010

 

swine fluA new analysis from Harvard University, using H1N1 deaths in the U.S. in the spring and projecting likely outcomes for this fall, suggests that the swine flu “pandemic” has been oversold.

The new paper suggests swine flu was unlikely to create a severe epidemic. In light of this, officials have taken many steps that may have been unnecessary, including mass vaccinations.

It is not clear how H1N1 will act in the coming months, but swine flu cases seem to have already hit their peak.


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While many so-called scientific experts have criticized me and others who have spoken out about the fear-mongering and senseless mass-vaccination campaign surrounding the swine flu, more of the scientific community is now coming to the same conclusions we’ve been talking about for months.

The swine flu pandemic was a pandemic that never materialized, just exactly as I predicted.

Now it looks as though the H1N1 scare of 2009 will go down as one of the biggest government and pharmaceutical scams ever, renewing a healthy, and necessary, skepticism about government fear-mongering, the swine flu vaccine and the dubious dealings behind the implementation of worldwide mass-vaccination programs.

It started last month when British and French media began saying the H1N1 pandemic has been "hyped" by medical researchers to further their own cause, boost research grants and line the pockets of drug companies. 

Ontario health officials have also declared H1N1 a “dud” pandemic, stating the huge government investment made so far may have been unjustified. And now, a new study by researchers at Harvard University and the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit in the U.K. is finding that this “pandemic” was never a cause for alarm.

After analyzing H1N1 deaths in the United States in the spring, then projecting outcomes for this past fall, they found the fu season should have been no different than a typical flu season -- and possibly even milder than average!

Early Studies Showed H1N1 Was NOT Dangerous or Highly Contagious

In the beginning, even before it was declared a level 6 pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), a group of “scientists” were sounding the alarm that this might indeed be the terrifying, deadly pandemic they had been expecting for over half a century.

We were told that young, healthy people, pregnant women and small children were falling ill and quickly dying, and the virus was spreading rapidly. They even suggested it could mutate into an even more dangerous form that could kill countless numbers of people.

Well, Dr. Russell Blaylock recently shared some information that shows health officials knew very early on that H1N1 was probably not much more of a threat than the seasonal flu that surfaces every year. He says: 

“Once the pandemic had been declared, virologists tested the potency of this virus using a conventional method, that is, infecting ferrets with the virus. What they found was that the H1N1 virus was no more pathogenic than the ordinary seasonal flu, even though it did penetrate slightly deeper into the lungs.

It in no way matched the pathogenecity of the 1917-1918 H1N1 virus. It also did not infect other tissues, and especially important, it did not infect the brain.

Next, they wanted to test the ability of the virus to spread among the population. The results of their tests were conflicting, but the best evidence indicated that the virus did not spread to others very well.

In fact, an unpublished study by the CDC found that when one member of a family contracted the H1N1 virus, other members of the family were infected only 10% of the time -- a very low communicability.”

Of course, nothing sells vaccines like panic, so you likely did not hear about this in the media. That is, until now.

The CDC Was Way Off … Why are They Still Pushing the Vaccine?

The CDC previously estimated that the U.S. death toll from the swine flu would be around 90,000. Even using their own bloated numbers -- some 80 percent of which are in all likelihood unrelated to H1N1 -- 9,820 people have actually died from H1N1 from April through November.

That would STILL, according to their own statistics stating that the flu kills 36,000 Americans a year, put us squarely in the middle of the mildest flu season in recent memory.

Meanwhile, the CDC’s own data states that flu activity is continuing to fall across the United States, with only 11 states still reporting widespread flu activity as of mid-December.

Yet, they are still touting the H1N1 vaccine as the best way to protect against this “pandemic” virus.

Well, as the word continues to get out that swine flu is another “pandemic” that never was … ranking right up there with the bird flu hoax back in 2005 … it looks as though the CDC is going to have a heck of a lot of surplus H1N1 vaccines on their hands. 

So now they are stating that supplies of H1N1 vaccine are increasing and many places have opened up vaccination to anyone who wants it. Fortunately, many do not

But the U.S. federal government has contracts to purchase 250 million doses of swine flu vaccine, which may explain why the Los Angeles Times recently reported that:

“Health officials' biggest fear now is that, with the perception that the pandemic is waning, many people will decide they don't need the vaccine.”

That the swine flu is “waning” is not a perception, it’s a fact, but Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is not giving up on selling those shots, either. She stated in a news conference

"We have a wonderful window of opportunity to prevent or lessen a third wave."

A third wave?

Excuse me, but we’re still waiting for the first and second to show up!

So it appears the WHO and governments around the world are going to keep pushing their H1N1 vaccines through the winter and into spring, even though swine flu cases are dwindling and are nowhere near what you would call a true, dangerous pandemic.

The latest news confirms that H1N1 peaked in October

In Britain, health authorities' original worst-case scenario -- which said as many as 65,000 could die from H1N1 -- has twice been revised down and the prediction is now for around 1,000 deaths. This is way below their average annual toll of 4,000 to 8,000 deaths from seasonal flu.

And the National Institute for Health and Welfare in Finland actually removed swine flu from a list of diseases considered dangerous to the public -- and that was back in July!

So I have just one further sentiment I’d like to say to the media and health officials in the United States who are still trying to perpetuate the swine flu myth:

… It’s time to let it go now -- the jig is up.



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Subscribe to comments feed Comments (30 posted):

keith stern on 01/02/2010 12:57:58
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The purpose of the "overselling" was to convince people to get vaccinated thereby preventing pandemic. Mission accomplished. Without the "overselling" it's quite possible H1N1 would have lived up to its potential.
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tmack on 01/02/2010 13:10:02
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Ah, I suppose natural remedies could have save the 10,000 plus patients that succumbed to the H1N1 and secondary pneumonia that resulted from infection as well. "Dr." Mercola's assertion that the vaccine was oversold and hyped need to be taken in context. As about every other "remedy" naturapathic medicine is disproved on a weekly basis using the same science he quotes for this piece, he now holds himself out as an expert in virology and public health planning. We know that the vaccination program attenuated the effects of this virus and I witness that play out daily in the intensive care units where nurse, respiratory therapists and physicians saved many patients with H1N1 and gained protection by means of their being vaccinated. Now that I know of this website, I will be sure to stay tuned with what this "Glenn Beck" of medical treatment serves up to his readers.
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journey on 01/02/2010 13:14:25
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IMHO the over-sell was based on profit and politics. Based on lifetime of experience here, the best way to treat the flu is w/medication after sx and dx show cause. Let us remain calm and only treat sx as they appear.
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Paul T on 01/02/2010 13:16:06
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"It started last month when British and French media began saying the H1N1 pandemic has been "hyped" by medical researchers to further their own cause, boost research grants and line the pockets of drug companies."

I agree. You name the issue, any issue, (global warming?) and the doomsayers have an agenda that they benefit from. No one is unbiased. The scientific community is no different than the corrupt Walllstreet folks or the political powerbrokers.
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jeff123 on 01/02/2010 13:22:09
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Keith Stern, is that how it has to be?

So my tax dollars go to a government that instead of conducting research and trying to tell me what's what straightforwardly they disseminate intense fear and hype to scare me into submission?

The government poops out tons and tons of propaganda day in and day out from drugs to whatever.

I think the most depressing thing about the hype is the surge of use in anti bacterial products. I think the use of anti bacterial products in every day life is aweful, extremely bad for health and environment. just google anti bacterial doing more harm than good. you'll see how the key chemical is found in 60% of us rivers and streams, may not be as effetive as regular soap etc.
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Michael on 01/02/2010 13:26:23
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I wonder if Dr Mercola or if any of these Harvard "experts" actually took care of anyone who died or almost lost their life to H1N1. The public health efforts and vaccinations probably saved thousands of lives. Having been on the front lines caring for these patients - including witnessing the horrible potentially preventable deaths of young people - they only way I can describe these "reviews" is....crap.
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Melissa on 01/02/2010 13:29:21
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Keith got it in the first comment up there. The point of vaccination campaigns is to stop a pandemic. I'd expect someone with medical training to understand this.

I'm a paramedic and I saw plenty of really, really sick kids and teenagers this year. Historically, the serious pandemic flus have killed young people. This flu kills young people. Sorry, it was not an irrational conclusion in the spring to believe that this had the potential to be a serious pandemic. Just because it wasn't 1918 all over again doesn't mean vaccination was unnecessary. Was this flu going to be as serious as the "big ones" in history? Probably not. Did we know this for a fact in April? No, all we knew was that it killed kids.

Where did this "Doctor" get his MD? ... Oh, he's a DO, that explains a lot.
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ED PALMA on 01/02/2010 13:37:16
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You're funny.... You have hunch that comes true (with the help of vaccination efforts) and now you crow?? Where would you have been if we listened to you and millions had died..... Probably hiding under a rock!
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George on 01/02/2010 14:02:25
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A WARNING TO EVERYONE!

Even though the Google NewsBot has accidentally linked this as a real "news" article, it's completely fake... you have to dig into the websites to find out that this guy is a "D.O.", ** NOT AN "M.D." **, and he is a graduate of the "Chicago College of Osteopathic Medicine", NOT a real medical school! (You only have to have a 2.75 GPA to get in... that should tell you all you need to know.)

Just want to make sure everybody knows this...

thanks
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releggneh on 01/02/2010 14:09:59
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You know what Pelosi & rahm say, Never waste a crisis when you can benefit from it. Not one person that I know, have gotten this vaccination. Not one person I know have had it. The hospitals stated that they were treating all flu symptoms as H1N1. So who is to really know who really had the h1n1 or the regular flu!!
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Alex on 01/02/2010 14:19:52
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H1N1 is real and so are other bugs. There is no sense in ignoring them simply to see afterward which ones should have been headed. That’s our approach to national security, and sees where that gets us. That is a nonsensical concept on any front in any age.
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MD Student on 01/02/2010 14:25:18
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DOs can accurately review evidence as well as MDs. That is not the issue here and is not even a legitimate argument against this opinion piece. Dr. Mercola is allowed to call himself Dr. if he wishes.

The legitimate argument is that this particular DO is ignoring all sorts of factors that could have contributed to H1N1 not reaching a pandemic level. Lots of people were vaccinated, which must have made some difference. Also, because of the extra concern about H1N1 based on preliminary research, there was a massive campaign to encourage hand-washing and sneezing into one's sleeve, which can make a BIG difference with the flu virus. Hand santizer flew off the shelves. Many of the places that are traditionally viral breeding grounds (crowded schools, cruise ships, tourist destinations expecting large crowds) installed automatic hand sanitizers, as was recommended by the CDC. Are we to assume this had no effect and the reason why there was no pandemic was because scientists are idiots?

I personally find it offensive when any faux-skeptic puts the term Scientists in quotations, as if the skeptic knew anything at all about the credentials of the researchers who worked very hard to estimate an H1N1 worst-case scenario. I have a friend who works at the CDC, and it is their job to plan for worst-case scenarios, and I think they did a great job. Furthermore, we are still learning about viruses and when a flu is starting its season, there is a very limited time window within which one can do research, so the only logical approach is to plan for the worst based on what we've learned in the past, and that is exactly what the CDC did. People buy health insurance for the same reason, to prepare for the worst, so its foolish to criticize the CDC for doing its job and advocating extreme caution and preventative measures.

What is more likely, that there was a vast government/pharma company conspiracy to sell billions on the back of a phoney health scare, or that the preventative measures put into place actually helped reduced the likelihood of pandemic? Occam's razor, as usual slices cleanly.
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susan on 01/02/2010 14:25:35
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The illogic goes 'round and 'round: just because the thing didn't turn into a pandemic is not proof that the vaccine panic-attack worked. Has anybody posting here heard of circular reasoning?

Having gotten the 1976 swine flu vac a few days before the paralysis it caused was made public, I decided to wait this "pandemic" out. I wanted to see if the corporateers' rush to profit was what was blaring on the media, or good science.

So far, there is absolutely no scientific proof that the vaccine program prevented a pandemic; people who got the vac got sick anyway, people who didn't get it stayed healthy.

Vaccines have massive side effects on the immune system. mass vac programs divert money from other health issues, such as obesity and cancer prevention.

The flu can be bad news, as those with loved ones who had a bad case experienced. But people die every year from the flu; are this year's numbers worse? How about the regular seasonal vac, and the cases of that compared to those who got only the swine flu vac; where are the studies?

As Jack Nicholson said in the Witches of Eastwick, "We're playing the percentages." When a huge profit is to be made in a short time, and it's fear-driven, it's usually a good idea to follow the money: One would be phoolish to not phactor Big Pharma into your handicapping!

Think: Weapons of mass destruction. Halliburton.
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IDDOC on 01/02/2010 14:29:12
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This article is not news and has nothing to do with Harvard. This guy is an idiot who doesn't believe in vaccination. Thousands have died of H1N1. Hundreds of thousands die yearly of influenza. The influenza of 1918 killed 40-80 million people worldwide in one year. Influenza is an extremely deadly virus which mutates constantly. Do not let non-scientists who want to sell you herbs and straighten your spine convince you of this BS by keying into your fears of government conspiracy etc. BTW vaccination is not particularly profitable for drug companies in comparison to other pharmaceuticals.
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Daniel Clark Thompson on 01/02/2010 14:31:24
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Yes! "Over-Hype" can, and does, prevent anything from cavities to atherosclerosis--OR--- TYRANNY and OUT of Control--"Hype Using" Government!! It is called--"Being Proactive" or "Getting in Front of...?? Or , "Fighting Fire With Fire"!!
"Capish"?
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Mark G. on 01/02/2010 14:33:27
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Of course this was hyped. Government has not been about the people for a very long time now. Government is itself a systemic disease that operates against the very people it is supposed to serve.

Government has been and will continue to be about business. Money. Bankers. The financial system. If you think for one second that it is truly for the people, then you are deluded.

Knowing that, however, should place a great deal of mistrust in you when the government tells you this or that is for your own good.

The next biggest hype of government is the taking over of healthcare and mandating that you have insurance. If anything else, this should show you that they are all about lining businesses pockets....even if the "bailout" of banks and businesses didn't do that for you, you should at ;east start to open your eyes now. For God's sake people...open your freaking eyes!
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spinnikerca on 01/02/2010 14:38:10
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I don't get these comments that pandemic didn't appear because the vaccine stopped it. The vaccine wasn't available to almost anyone until after October when not only were cases going down, people already figured they didn't need it. There is no possibility the low numbers were materially impacted by the vaccine. Had the disease been as deadly as widely touted, there would have been massive numbers of deaths before then.


I am really sick of government and special interests using fear to sell bad policy.
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MDStudent on 01/02/2010 14:38:16
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In reading more of what this DO is saying on his website (I'm only reading the articles for which you don't have to pay Dr. Mercola), I now realize why he put the term "scientist" in quotations. It is because he is a naturopath and scoffs at scientific research in general, unless he can distort it to promote his own remedies and advice which he is eagerly trying to sell you. I suppose I have fallen victim to yet another "made you look" opinion piece online by even wasting my time here. Move along people, nothing to see here. No need to rubberneck at someone who thinks an herbal pill and a spine adjustment will treat disease....

It's nice how you have to enter your email to make a post. How much you want to bet I'll now get emails about Açai berry remedies? Enjoy your loot, Dr. Mercola.
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Mitch on 01/02/2010 14:38:52
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MD or DO is not significant. Both programs produce highly qualified physicians and anybody who disagrees knows very little about the distinction between the two. I know of MD programs that have accepted students with GPA's lower than 2.75, and there are DO schools whose requirements are equal or above some MD schools. Melissa and George, perhaps the both of you should educate yourselves more on the distinction between the two.
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bob on 01/02/2010 14:45:46
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the scientific and medical communities should be ashamed of themselves, how many over hyped, false hoaxes can they possibly dish out before people know that something smells rotten. I'm not a doctor, a climate scientist, i have no PHD ..

but i did grow up on a farm .. and i know what BS smells like.

Swine flu
ebola virus
Sars
hole in the ozone
acid rain
global warming
second hand tobacco smoke

its all a bunch of crap
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Daniel on 01/02/2010 15:27:10
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What we are witnessing--in real time, here in America, is Facsism--plain and simple. Money/Business are so far up the government--that they share a butt!

We let it happen. Our Framers fought mightily about the establishment of our monetary system-and warned that it would someday--USURP our freedoms/DECISION making capabilities!

Wow!! How smart was Jefferson, Madison Adams...? "We are not worthy".

Fascism did not "Come Marching"--crouched behind tanks--it went to Congress!!
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Tolvanera on 01/02/2010 16:17:27
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There was no first or second wave? Really? In October I had about 1/2 my class of 5th graders out for over a week each, some of them with respiratory distress that necessitated trips to the ER. All teachers in the hall experienced similar absence rates within the month, and one teacher came down with H1N1. A neighboring school had a child that died of H1N1, and a 6-year-old across the river died of H1N1 a few hours after displaying symptoms. Yet...there was no first or second wave? Come on Dr. Mercola. Maybe H1N1 was oversold, and maybe it wasn't. But, clearly, you seem to be making statements consistent with an agenda, not a reality.
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Bill on 01/02/2010 16:53:07
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How does vaccination this year compare with years past? That would be the last telling statistic needed to know if this was oversold. Vaccinations up greatly, mild flu season...not oversold. Vaccinations up slightly, even or down, and mild flu season...oversold.
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Hank on 01/02/2010 16:59:33
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The author seems disappointmented that such few people have died. Whether th death numbers were satisfactory enough for the author or not, everyone who has had H1N1 has said that it's symptoms were many times worse than a normal flu. That alone would be reason enough to get the H1N1 vaccine in addition to the normal seasonal vaccine.

Lasly, it seems that maybe the vaccine could of prevented the pandemic...wasn't that the point of it?

(BTW, most bloggers are purposely inflammatory because it brings them more clicks and leads to more advertising dollars)
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Pascal on 01/02/2010 17:23:59
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Merck named former public-health authority Julie Gerberding (former CDC chief) as the head of the company's $5 billion vaccines business, starting Jan. 25.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091221-709821.html

This illustrates one of the reasons why organizations such as CDC, FDA etc love to push vaccines so much? Many people who work at these government organizations have financial ties to drug companies. Shows how much you can really trust these organizations.
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Lewis B. Sckolnick on 01/02/2010 18:30:23
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The same thing happened witht eh Swine Flu in 1976.
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David on 01/02/2010 21:02:40
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So, by this logic, we should stop vaccinating against anything that is currently not a plague on society.

I'm not sold by the author. I'll just go ahead and get my "useless" vaccinations. Oh wait....I did. And it only cost me $18 out of my own pocket.
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MAJB on 03/21/2010 00:34:30
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In this case every .org responsible for action took action. I see this as a rare relief. To take the 'let's consider the worst and act upon it immediately' approach should be applauded, and not attacked. The powers (that be) over our financial mess (hoax) could learn a great deal on how to be decisive. The 'safe is better approach' will always be the proper approach. Better to have left over vials than dead bodies!
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Pensionat on 05/29/2010 20:59:40
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Well I guess we all over reacted. But then again, you don't want to take any chances with these things when you have small kids like I do.
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how to get abs fast on 10/09/2010 03:39:17
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What a surprise. The commotion generated over here in Austra for vaccination was a blatant money grab.
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