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# Adult obesity rates may almost double in the U.S. by 2030
- URL: https://www.foodconsumer.org/adult_obesity_rates_0827111053/
- Published: 2011-08-28T11:52:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-22T15:55:11.000Z
- Description: A Lancet modeling study projects 65 million more obese US adults by 2030 — half of men and 45 to 52 percent of women — bringing 7.8 million more diabetes cases, 6.8 million more heart disease and stroke cases, and $48 to $66 billion more in yearly costs.
- Author: Food Consumer
- Tags: Obesity, Avoiding Illness, #vivvo-import

By David Liu, Ph.D.

A new study in the the Aug 27, 2011 issue of the Lancet predicts that by 2030, 65 million more adults in the United States may become obese if Americans don't do something to stop the obesity epidemic.

The increase in obesity prevalence will lead to more cases of diabetes, heart disease, stroke, and cancer. The obesity-related healthcare cost will increase by $48 to 66 billion per year.

Y. Claire Wang, MD, ScD of Columbia University and colleagues made the prediction through a mathematical model based on body mass index data from two national studies, the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Dr. Wang and colleagues found in the U.S., obesity prevalence among men will be 50 percent by 2030, compared to 32 percent in 2008\. For women, the obesity rate will be 45 to 52 percent by 2030, compared to 35 percent in 2008.

By 2030, obesity will cause 7.8 million more cases of diabetes, 6.8 million more cases of coronary heart disease and stroke and 539,000 additional cases of cancer.

"Taking no action would have the catastrophic consequences described in our study, but a population level decrease in BMI by 1% would avoid as many as 2.4 million cases of diabetes, 1.7 million cases of heart disease and stroke, and up to 127 000 cases of cancer in the U.S. alone ," Dr. Wang was quoted as saying.

Dr. Wang worked with colleagues from Oxford University and predicted also the obesity prevalence and its impact on major diseases in the U.K. by 2030.