CDC: 302 Americans with H1N1 have died so far

By David Liu (davidl@foodconsumer.org)

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 24 updated the H1N1 flu situation on its website saying the number of deaths associated with the viral infection have increased to 302 in the United States since March, 2009 when Mexico first reported cases of the virus.

The CDC says the confirmed and probable cases have reached as many as 43,771 although the real number can be much higher. The death to infection ratio is about 302 to 43,771, meaning every 144 infections may be linked to one death.

The real death risk of death associated with swine flu can be much lower or even insignificant compared to the death risk from other causes such as seasonal flu.  

Reuters cited Dr. Anne Schuchat of the CDC as saying more than one million Americans may have acquired the H1N1 virus without knowing it. Health officials acknowledged that no one knows extractly how many people have gotten infected because the diagnosis is not informative enough to determine what virus really causes flu in an individual.  

If Dr. Schuchat’s estimation is accurate, then the mortality can be one death in every 3300 people. And if the trend remains unchanged, no more than 1,000 people who are infected will die this year compared to 30,000 deaths a year associated with seasonal flu.
 
The 302 deaths are associated with H1N1, but in few cases deaths resulted directly from the flu or the virus. And many people or probably the majority found with virus when or after they died often had been suffering some underlying disease or health condition.

Drug companies are producing H1N1 vaccines now. The government urged the public to participate in the vaccine trials. The first shipment is expected in October or earlier. The safety and efficacy is unknown or remains to be determined. The efficacy of a vaccine against seasonal flu can be as low as less than 45%. 

Some people have already worried that the mercury loaded vaccines could do more harm than the virus. But news media has reported that the vaccines for children will be free of neuron-toxin mercury while adults will still have to use vaccines with thimerosal as a preservative.

The CDC says on its website "Vaccines are a very important part of a response to novel H1N1 influenza and the U.S. Government is aggressively taking early steps in the process to manufacture a novel H1N1 vaccine, working closely with manufacturers."

The news media has suggested that a massive vaccination in schools that worries those who believe in natural health and vaccines may do more harm than good could be inevitable this fall.

The CDC has already published its recommendations for state and local planning for a 2009 Novel H1N1 influenza vaccination program. The federal government has already promised to give each state $1 per resident to help offset the cost of vaccination including the cost for the vaccination campaign.
 
More than 170,000 women a year in the U.S. get killed by breast cancer and or related treatment. About 30,000 American infants younger than 6 months or 0.6 percent of infants in that age group die each year from all causes. According to The U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 43,200 people died from motor vehicle traffic crash in 2005.

In comparison, 302 people with H1N1 died in the U.S. in four months, the CDC reported. If the trend remains unchanged, about 1,000 people with H1N1 may die this year.